The risk of another economic recession in Germany increases


According to the German IMK (Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung), the risk of an economic recession increased between November and January next year. However, it is still relatively small, even though Europe’s largest economy is facing a relatively strong second wave of epidemics.

The risk of the German economy going into recession over the next two months is currently 17.7 percent. This was reported for Reuters by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Short-Term Research (IMK). As of October, the probability of a repeat of the economic recession was 12.6 percent. As a way, the risk has increased by almost half, yet it remains low.

With the onset of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, Germany has adopted relatively strict anti-epidemic measures, such as the closure of bars, pubs, and restaurants, or gyms. Shops and schools remained open. Overall, however, the restrictions in Germany are slightly milder than in the spring, which can be attributed to the fact that, for example, wearing veils was required indoors during the summer.

The world’s largest economy fell by nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. The following day, however, it recorded more than 8% growth. Data for the remaining quarter and for the whole of this year are likely to be known during January 2021.


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