An effective vaccine will lead to a resumption of growth in oil demand, but not so quickly


Pfizer and BioNTech’s report on the high effectiveness of their vaccine has boosted optimism in both financial and commodity markets. While the coronavirus epidemic has literally grounded oil demand, the vision of coping with the disease is likely to lead to its recovery.

But according to Reuters analyst John Kemp, anyone expecting a rapid increase in demand for black gold or other energy commodities would be disappointed. While humanity has a coronavirus vaccine at its fingertips, it will take several more months before it is available in sufficient quantities to create the desired collective immunity.

This is directly the time it will take to restore economic growth and, with it, the growth in oil demand. But the effect of the coronavirus vaccine will not be felt until the second half of next year, according to Kemp. The camp stems from Monday’s movement in oil futures prices. If the vaccine is available to the extent necessary, restrictions on movement, including restrictions on air transport, will be removed.

This is one of the key areas that generate massive demand for oil, from which, among other things, aviation gasoline is produced. But John Kemp warns of too much optimism, as the practical use of the vaccine may still be delayed. On the other hand, other pharmaceutical companies, not just Pfizer and BioNTech, are developing the coronavirus vaccine.


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