China appears to be changing its zero-tolerance strategy on covid, which could bring a revival in economic growth. However, according to experts, this should only happen in the second half of next year.
Economic recovery in the second half of 2023
Although there are already signs of a recovery in demand for travel and other services, a more vigorous resumption of economic growth in China is not expected until the second half of next year. And this despite the retreat of the Chinese authorities from the strategy of zero tolerance towards covid. Infections will increase, which will lead to spontaneous lockdowns. Although these will not be as tough as the state ones, it is still necessary to take into account the negative effects of the growing infection on the economy.
Weaker first quarter
“Compared with developed countries, China’s health resources are clearly insufficient,” Nie Wen, an economic analyst at Shanghai-based consultancy Hwabao Trust, told Reuters. According to him, China’s economic growth will reach only about 3.5 to 4 percent in the first quarter of next year, compared to the originally expected five percent.
