{"id":90718,"date":"2026-10-27T10:48:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T09:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/?p=90718"},"modified":"2026-10-27T10:52:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T09:52:57","slug":"mi-a-recesszio-a-mervado-mutatok-a-kezdete-elott-es-utan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/hu\/akademia\/mi-a-recesszio-a-mervado-mutatok-a-kezdete-elott-es-utan\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi a recesszi\u00f3? A m\u00e9rvad\u00f3 mutat\u00f3k a kezdete el\u0151tt \u00e9s ut\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Egy recesszi\u00f3 \u00e1tform\u00e1lhatja az eg\u00e9sz gazdas\u00e1got, hat\u00e1st gyakorolva a foglalkoztat\u00e1sra, a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok j\u00f6vedelm\u00e9re, a v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokra \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi piacokra. \u00c1m annak meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sa, hogy mikor kezd\u0151dik egy recesszi\u00f3, bonyolultabb, mint egyszer\u0171en figyelni, hogy a GDP mikor fordul negat\u00edvba. A k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek elt\u00e9r\u0151 m\u00f3dszertanokat alkalmaznak, \u00e9s a figyelmeztet\u0151 jelek gyakran h\u00f3napokkal a hivatalos bejelent\u00e9s el\u0151tt megjelennek. A&nbsp;<strong>recesszi\u00f3 defin\u00edci\u00f3j\u00e1nak<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00e9s a k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok \u00e1ltal figyelt mutat\u00f3knak a meg\u00e9rt\u00e9se seg\u00edthet a befektet\u0151knek megk\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6ztetni az \u00e1tmeneti lassul\u00e1st egy \u00e1tfog\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi visszaes\u00e9st\u0151l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mi az a recesszi\u00f3? A defin\u00edci\u00f3 meg\u00e9rt\u00e9se<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recesszi\u00f3t \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban \u00fagy defini\u00e1lj\u00e1k, mint a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g jelent\u0151s visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9t, amely a gazdas\u00e1g t\u00f6bb szektor\u00e1t is \u00e9rinti. Jellemz\u0151en egy\u00fctt j\u00e1r a termel\u00e9s gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9vel, a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9vel, az alacsonyabb fogyaszt\u00f3i kiad\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s a foglalkoztat\u00e1si helyzet roml\u00e1s\u00e1val.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az egyik sz\u00e9les k\u00f6rben haszn\u00e1lt meghat\u00e1roz\u00e1s szerint a recesszi\u00f3&nbsp;<strong>a re\u00e1l brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k (GDP) k\u00e9t egym\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151 negyed\u00e9ven \u00e1t tart\u00f3 cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t<\/strong>&nbsp;jelenti. Ezt gyakran technikai recesszi\u00f3nak nevezik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ennek a szab\u00e1lynak azonban vannak korl\u00e1tai. El\u0151fordulhat, hogy egy gazdas\u00e1g k\u00e9t negyed\u00e9ven \u00e1t csak minim\u00e1lis m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 GDP-visszaes\u00e9st tapasztal, mik\u00f6zben a foglalkoztat\u00e1s \u00e9s a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si j\u00f6vedelmek tov\u00e1bbra is ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3nak bizonyulnak. Ford\u00edtott esetben egy s\u00falyos gazdas\u00e1gi visszaes\u00e9s akkor is recesszi\u00f3nak min\u0151s\u00fclhet, ha hat h\u00f3napn\u00e1l r\u00f6videbb ideig tart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/fandd\/issues\/Series\/Back-to-Basics\/recession\">Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF)<\/a>&nbsp;szerint a k\u00e9t negyed\u00e9ves szab\u00e1ly hasznos viszony\u00edt\u00e1si alap, de egy sz\u00e9lesebb k\u00f6r\u0171 \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s gyakran pontosabb k\u00e9pet ny\u00fajt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A l\u00e9nyegi k\u00e9rd\u00e9s az, hogy a gazdas\u00e1gi gyenges\u00e9g kell\u0151en jelent\u0151s, sz\u00e9les k\u00f6r\u0171 \u00e9s tart\u00f3s-e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mi\u00e9rt dat\u00e1lhatj\u00e1k elt\u00e9r\u0151en az int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek a recesszi\u00f3kat?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tartja fenn az amerikai \u00fczleti ciklusok sz\u00e9les k\u00f6rben elfogadott kronol\u00f3gi\u00e1j\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahelyett, hogy kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag a negyed\u00e9ves GDP-re t\u00e1maszkodna, az NBER \u00dczleti Ciklus Dat\u00e1l\u00f3 Bizotts\u00e1ga a foglalkoztat\u00e1st, a j\u00f6vedelmet, a termel\u00e9st, a fogyaszt\u00f3i kiad\u00e1sokat \u00e9s a v\u00e1llalati elad\u00e1sokat vizsg\u00e1lja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating\">m\u00f3dszertana<\/a>&nbsp;h\u00e1rom jellemz\u0151t hangs\u00falyoz:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>M\u00e9lys\u00e9g:<\/strong>&nbsp;Mennyire s\u00falyos a gazdas\u00e1gi visszaes\u00e9s?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sz\u00f3r\u00f3d\u00e1s:<\/strong>&nbsp;Mennyire terjedt el a gyenges\u00e9g a gazdas\u00e1g eg\u00e9sz\u00e9ben?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Id\u0151tartam:<\/strong>&nbsp;Mennyi ideig tartott a visszaes\u00e9s?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezeket a jellemz\u0151ket egy\u00fcttesen \u00e9rt\u00e9kelik, nem pedig egy r\u00f6gz\u00edtett k\u00e9plet szerint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A COVID-19 okozta recesszi\u00f3 j\u00f3l szeml\u00e9lteti ezt a megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9st. Az NBER 2020 febru\u00e1rj\u00e1t jel\u00f6lte meg a gazdas\u00e1gi cs\u00facspontk\u00e9nt, 2020 \u00e1prilis\u00e1t pedig a m\u00e9lypontk\u00e9nt. B\u00e1r a visszaes\u00e9s az \u0151 dat\u00e1l\u00e1si konvenci\u00f3juk szerint csup\u00e1n k\u00e9t h\u00f3napig tartott, s\u00falyoss\u00e1ga \u00e9s sz\u00e9less\u00e9ge indokolta a recesszi\u00f3k\u00e9nt val\u00f3 besorol\u00e1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Miben k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6zik az eur\u00f3pai \u00e9s az amerikai megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban az elemz\u0151k gyakran a re\u00e1l GDP k\u00e9t egym\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151 negyed\u00e9ves cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t haszn\u00e1lj\u00e1k a technikai recesszi\u00f3 le\u00edr\u00e1s\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Eurostat teszi k\u00f6zz\u00e9 az ehhez az \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9shez sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges negyed\u00e9ves adatokat, b\u00e1r az eur\u00f3pai int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek \u00e9s az egyes orsz\u00e1gok nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl t\u00e1maszkodnak kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag a k\u00e9t negyed\u00e9ves szab\u00e1lyra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g m\u00f3dszertani jelleg\u0171. A GDP-alap\u00fa \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9sek a negyed\u00e9ves kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1sra \u00f6sszpontos\u00edtanak, m\u00edg a sz\u00e9lesebb k\u00f6r\u0171 \u00fczleti ciklus megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9sek t\u00f6bb mutat\u00f3t is vizsg\u00e1lnak, \u00e9s havi szint\u0171 fordul\u00f3pontokat is k\u00e9pesek azonos\u00edtani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Egy m\u00e1sik bonyol\u00edt\u00f3 t\u00e9nyez\u0151, hogy a gazdas\u00e1gi statisztik\u00e1kat ut\u00f3lag korrig\u00e1lj\u00e1k. A kezdeti GDP-, foglalkoztat\u00e1si \u00e9s ipari termel\u00e9si becsl\u00e9sek m\u00f3dosulhatnak, ahogy \u00fajabb inform\u00e1ci\u00f3k v\u00e1lnak el\u00e9rhet\u0151v\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ennek k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben&nbsp;<strong>a hivatalos recesszi\u00f3s d\u00e1tumokat gyakran csak h\u00f3napokkal a visszaes\u00e9s kezdete ut\u00e1n \u2013 vagy ak\u00e1r annak lez\u00e1rulta ut\u00e1n \u2013 jelentik be.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A recesszi\u00f3s mutat\u00f3k \u00e1ttekint\u0151 t\u00e1bl\u00e1zata<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recesszi\u00f3 azonos\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1hoz a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g t\u00f6bb dimenzi\u00f3j\u00e1t kell megvizsg\u00e1lni. Egyetlen mutat\u00f3 sem jelzi megb\u00edzhat\u00f3an minden visszaes\u00e9s bek\u00f6vetkez\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az al\u00e1bbi t\u00e1bl\u00e1zat \u00f6sszefoglalja a gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e1llapot felm\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9re haszn\u00e1lt legfontosabb m\u00e9r\u0151sz\u00e1mokat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th>Mutat\u00f3<\/th><th>Mit m\u00e9r<\/th><th>Lehets\u00e9ges recesszi\u00f3s jel<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>Re\u00e1l GDP<\/td><td>Infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val korrig\u00e1lt gazdas\u00e1gi kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s<\/td><td>Visszaes\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gon k\u00edv\u00fcli b\u00e9rlist\u00e1k (nonfarm payroll)<\/td><td>Az amerikai foglalkoztat\u00e1s v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sai<\/td><td>Tart\u00f3s munkahelyveszt\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta<\/td><td>Munk\u00e1t keres\u0151k ar\u00e1nya<\/td><td>Tart\u00f3s emelked\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Re\u00e1l szem\u00e9lyes j\u00f6vedelem<\/td><td>H\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3ereje<\/td><td>Cs\u00f6kken\u0151, infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val korrig\u00e1lt j\u00f6vedelem<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ipari termel\u00e9s<\/td><td>Feldolgoz\u00f3ipari, b\u00e1ny\u00e1szati \u00e9s k\u00f6z\u00fczemi kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s<\/td><td>Tart\u00f3s termel\u00e9scs\u00f6kken\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Re\u00e1l fogyaszt\u00f3i kiad\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val korrig\u00e1lt h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Cs\u00f6kken\u0151 fogyaszt\u00e1s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Re\u00e1l feldolgoz\u00f3ipari \u00e9s kereskedelmi elad\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val korrig\u00e1lt v\u00e1llalati elad\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Gyeng\u00fcl\u0151 kereslet<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Beszerz\u00e9si menedzserek indexe (PMI)<\/td><td>\u00dczleti aktivit\u00e1s \u00e9s k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyek<\/td><td>Tart\u00f3s visszaes\u00e9st jelz\u0151 \u00e9rt\u00e9kek<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00daj munkan\u00e9lk\u00fcli-seg\u00e9ly ig\u00e9nyl\u00e9sek<\/td><td>\u00daj munkan\u00e9lk\u00fcli-ell\u00e1t\u00e1s ir\u00e1nti ig\u00e9nyek<\/td><td>Tart\u00f3san n\u00f6vekv\u0151 elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1sok<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezeket a mutat\u00f3kat egy\u00fcttesen kell \u00e9rtelmezni. Egyesek korai figyelmeztet\u0151 jelz\u00e9st adnak, m\u00edg m\u00e1sok m\u00e1r kialakult gyenges\u00e9get er\u0151s\u00edtenek meg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Olvassa el ezt is: <a href=\"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/hu\/stock-market\/a-legjobb-befektetesi-szektorok-2026-ban-7-iparag-amelyek-strukturalis-novekedesre-vannak-beallitva\/\">A legjobb szektorok, amelyekbe 2026-ban \u00e9rdemes befektetni: 7 ipar\u00e1g, amely struktur\u00e1lis n\u00f6veked\u00e9sre van poz\u00edcion\u00e1lva<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Re\u00e1l GDP: a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g leg\u00e1tfog\u00f3bb m\u00e9r\u0151sz\u00e1ma<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k a gazdas\u00e1gon bel\u00fcl el\u0151\u00e1ll\u00edtott \u00e1ruk \u00e9s szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t m\u00e9ri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok a re\u00e1l GDP-re \u00f6sszpontos\u00edtanak, mert ez korrig\u00e1lva van az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val. A nomin\u00e1lis GDP egyszer\u0171en az \u00e1rak emelked\u00e9se miatt is n\u00f6vekedhet, m\u00e9g akkor is, ha a t\u00e9nyleges termel\u00e9s stagn\u00e1l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A re\u00e1l GDP k\u00e9t egym\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151 negyed\u00e9ven \u00e1t tart\u00f3 cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se technikai recesszi\u00f3t jelez, de a GDP \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban nem \u00edrja le teljes m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben a gazdas\u00e1gi helyzetet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u00e9ld\u00e1ul egy olyan gazdas\u00e1g, amely k\u00e9t egym\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151 negyed\u00e9vben 0,1%-os GDP-visszaes\u00e9st tapasztal, viszonylag ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3nak maradhat, ha a foglalkoztat\u00e1s \u00e9s a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si j\u00f6vedelmek tov\u00e1bbra is n\u00f6vekednek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ek\u00f6zben egy m\u00e1sik gazdas\u00e1g, amely kiterjedt elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1sokat, cs\u00f6kken\u0151 termel\u00e9st \u00e9s \u00e9lesen visszaes\u0151 fogyaszt\u00f3i kiad\u00e1sokat szenved el, s\u00falyosabb visszaes\u00e9st \u00e9lhet \u00e1t an\u00e9lk\u00fcl, hogy megfelelne a k\u00e9t negyed\u00e9ves szab\u00e1lynak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A negyed\u00e9ves GDP-adatok emellett k\u00e9s\u00e9ssel \u00e9rkeznek, \u00e9s ut\u00f3lagos korrekci\u00f3nak vannak kit\u00e9ve. A k\u00e9szletek \u00e9s a nemzetk\u00f6zi kereskedelem is befoly\u00e1solhatja a kiemelt eredm\u00e9nyeket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A befektet\u0151knek ez\u00e9rt a GDP-t a foglalkoztat\u00e1s, a j\u00f6vedelem \u00e9s a termel\u00e9s havi mutat\u00f3ival egy\u00fctt \u00e9rdemes vizsg\u00e1lniuk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Foglalkoztat\u00e1s: amikor a gazdas\u00e1gi gyenges\u00e9g el\u00e9ri a munkav\u00e1llal\u00f3kat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A foglalkoztat\u00e1s az egyik legfontosabb recesszi\u00f3s mutat\u00f3, mivel \u00f6sszek\u00f6ti a v\u00e1llalati tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9get a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyeivel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amikor a kereslet gyeng\u00fcl, a v\u00e1llalatok kezdetben cs\u00f6kkenthetik a t\u00fal\u00f3r\u00e1kat, elhalaszthatj\u00e1k a toborz\u00e1st, vagy befagyaszthatj\u00e1k a terjeszked\u00e9si terveket. Elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1sok gyakran akkor k\u00f6vetkeznek be, ha a helyzet tov\u00e1bb romlik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gon k\u00edv\u00fcli b\u00e9rlist\u00e1k (nonfarm payroll) adata k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen fontos, mivel a legt\u00f6bb nem mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gi ipar\u00e1gban m\u00e9ri a munkahelyek v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tart\u00f3s b\u00e9rlistacs\u00f6kken\u00e9s jelezheti, hogy a gazdas\u00e1gi gyenges\u00e9g terjed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta egy m\u00e1sik n\u00e9z\u0151pontot k\u00edn\u00e1l, b\u00e1r gyakran k\u00e9s\u00e9ssel reag\u00e1l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A v\u00e1llalatok habozhatnak a dolgoz\u00f3k elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1val, amikor egy visszaes\u00e9s megkezd\u0151dik. Hasonl\u00f3k\u00e9ppen, a felv\u00e9teleket is halogathatj\u00e1k, miut\u00e1n a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g m\u00e1r helyre\u00e1ll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating\/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions\">NBER megjegyzi<\/a>, hogy a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9g t\u00f6bb kor\u00e1bbi amerikai recesszi\u00f3 lez\u00e1rulta ut\u00e1n is tov\u00e1bb emelkedett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez\u00e9rt az elemz\u0151knek egy\u00fctt kell figyelembe venni\u00fck a b\u00e9rlist\u00e1s foglalkoztat\u00e1st, a munka\u00f3r\u00e1kat, a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fcli-seg\u00e9ly ig\u00e9nyl\u00e9seket \u00e9s a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1t\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Re\u00e1l szem\u00e9lyes j\u00f6vedelem: a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3erej\u00e9nek m\u00e9r\u00e9se<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si j\u00f6vedelem a recesszi\u00f3-elemz\u00e9s m\u00e1sik alapvet\u0151 eleme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amikor a re\u00e1lj\u00f6vedelmek cs\u00f6kkennek, a fogyaszt\u00f3k visszafoghatj\u00e1k a szabadon elk\u00f6lthet\u0151 v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1sokat, elhalaszthatj\u00e1k a nagyobb kiad\u00e1sokat, \u00e9s n\u00f6velhetik az el\u0151vigy\u00e1zatoss\u00e1gi megtakar\u00edt\u00e1sokat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok ez\u00e9rt az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val korrig\u00e1lt j\u00f6vedelmet vizsg\u00e1lj\u00e1k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Egy fontos amerikai mutat\u00f3 a&nbsp;<strong>transzferkifizet\u00e9sek n\u00e9lk\u00fcli re\u00e1l szem\u00e9lyes j\u00f6vedelem<\/strong>, amely seg\u00edt m\u00e9rni a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9gb\u0151l \u2013 nem pedig bizonyos \u00e1llami juttat\u00e1sokb\u00f3l \u2013 sz\u00e1rmaz\u00f3 j\u00f6vedelmet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez a mutat\u00f3 fontos szerepet j\u00e1tszik az NBER recesszi\u00f3-dat\u00e1l\u00e1si m\u00f3dszertan\u00e1ban is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tegy\u00fck fel, hogy a nomin\u00e1lis h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si j\u00f6vedelem 3%-kal emelkedik, mik\u00f6zben a fogyaszt\u00f3i \u00e1rak 5%-kal n\u0151nek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00e1r a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok t\u00f6bb p\u00e9nzt kapnak, v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3erej\u00fck cs\u00f6kken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A re\u00e1lj\u00f6vedelem tart\u00f3s gyenges\u00e9ge v\u00e9g\u00fcl cs\u00f6kkentheti a fogyaszt\u00e1st, ami tov\u00e1bbi nyom\u00e1st gyakorol a v\u00e1llalatokra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mindazon\u00e1ltal az \u00e1tmeneti j\u00f6vedelem-ingadoz\u00e1sok \u00f6nmagukban nem elegend\u0151 bizony\u00edt\u00e9kok egy recesszi\u00f3ra. Az elemz\u0151knek olyan trendeket kell keresni\u00fck, amelyek \u00f6sszhangban vannak a gyeng\u00e9bb foglalkoztat\u00e1ssal, kiad\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s termel\u00e9ssel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Olvassa el ezt is: <a href=\"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/tag\/how-to-invest-100k\/\">hogyan fektess\u00fcnk be 100 000 doll\u00e1rt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Ipari termel\u00e9s: a gazdas\u00e1gi nyom\u00e1s korai jelz\u00e9se<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ipari termel\u00e9s a feldolgoz\u00f3ipar, a b\u00e1ny\u00e1szat \u00e9s a k\u00f6zm\u0171vek kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t m\u00e9ri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A gy\u00e1rt\u00f3k reag\u00e1lnak a kereslet, az \u00faj megrendel\u00e9sek, a k\u00e9szletek \u00e9s a v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1saira. Amikor a gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyek gyeng\u00fclnek, a v\u00e1llalatok m\u00e9g azel\u0151tt cs\u00f6kkenthetik a termel\u00e9st, hogy a sz\u00e9lesebb gazdas\u00e1gi statisztik\u00e1k teljes m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben t\u00fckr\u00f6zn\u00e9k a visszaes\u00e9st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A feldolgoz\u00f3ipari gyenges\u00e9g k\u00e9s\u0151bb hat\u00e1ssal lehet a sz\u00e1ll\u00edtm\u00e1nyoz\u00e1sra, a logisztik\u00e1ra, a nyersanyag-besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3kra \u00e9s a kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 ipar\u00e1gakra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ipari termel\u00e9s visszaes\u00e9se azonban \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban nem jelez automatikusan gazdas\u00e1g-eg\u00e9sz szint\u0171 recesszi\u00f3t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gokban a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sz\u00e9t teszik ki, \u00e9s ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3ak maradhatnak akkor is, amikor a gy\u00e1rak megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1nya cs\u00f6kken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ipari termel\u00e9s akkor v\u00e1lik k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen informat\u00edvv\u00e1, amikor a foglalkoztat\u00e1ssal, a j\u00f6vedelemmel \u00e9s a fogyaszt\u00f3i kiad\u00e1sokkal egy\u00fctt gyeng\u00fcl.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egy recesszi\u00f3 \u00e1tform\u00e1lhatja az eg\u00e9sz gazdas\u00e1got, hat\u00e1st gyakorolva a foglalkoztat\u00e1sra, a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok j\u00f6vedelm\u00e9re, a v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokra \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi piacokra. \u00c1m annak meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sa, hogy mikor kezd\u0151dik egy recesszi\u00f3, bonyolultabb, mint egyszer\u0171en figyelni, hogy a GDP mikor fordul negat\u00edvba. A k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek elt\u00e9r\u0151 m\u00f3dszertanokat alkalmaznak, \u00e9s a figyelmeztet\u0151 jelek gyakran h\u00f3napokkal a hivatalos bejelent\u00e9s el\u0151tt megjelennek. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":90705,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4954],"tags":[6156,6587],"class_list":["post-90718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-akademia","tag-quantum-financial-system","tag-recesszio-hu"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"a recesszi\u00f3 defin\u00edci\u00f3ja. 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