{"id":91027,"date":"2026-11-06T09:24:25","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T08:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/?p=91027"},"modified":"2026-11-06T09:24:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T08:24:29","slug":"risk-off-co-znamena-utek-investoru-do-bezpeci-a-jak-pri-nem-reaguji-financni-trhy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/cs\/akciove-trhy\/risk-off-co-znamena-utek-investoru-do-bezpeci-a-jak-pri-nem-reaguji-financni-trhy\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk-off: Co znamen\u00e1 \u00fat\u011bk investor\u016f do bezpe\u010d\u00ed a jak p\u0159i n\u011bm reaguj\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kdy\u017e na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch roste nejistota, investo\u0159i \u010dasto p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed usilovat o co nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos a za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed se soust\u0159edit na ochranu sv\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu. Tento posun v n\u00e1lad\u011b se ozna\u010duje jako risk-off. P\u0159esto\u017ee v takov\u00fdch obdob\u00edch akcie zpravidla oslabuj\u00ed a roste z\u00e1jem o tradi\u010dn\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, reakce jednotliv\u00fdch aktiv nejsou v\u017edy p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9. Co rozhoduje o tom, jak se b\u011bhem tr\u017en\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f zachovaj\u00ed akcie, dluhopisy, m\u011bny nebo zlato?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy neust\u00e1le hledaj\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu mezi dv\u011bma protich\u016fdn\u00fdmi silami: snahou dos\u00e1hnout co nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdnosu a pot\u0159ebou omezovat investi\u010dn\u00ed riziko. V obdob\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho optimismu jsou investo\u0159i zpravidla ochotn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nakupovat aktiva s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnosov\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem, p\u0159esto\u017ee jsou spojena s v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nejistotou. Jakmile se v\u0161ak d\u016fv\u011bra v ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj zhor\u0161\u00ed, jejich priority se mohou velmi rychle zm\u011bnit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pojem&nbsp;<strong>risk-off<\/strong>&nbsp;p\u0159itom neznamen\u00e1 pouze to, \u017ee investo\u0159i prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed akcie a nakupuj\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. Popisuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed re\u017eim, ve kter\u00e9m za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 hr\u00e1t z\u00e1sadn\u00ed roli ochrana kapit\u00e1lu, dostupnost likvidity a snaha omezit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee aktiva, kter\u00e1 investor\u016fm poskytla ochranu b\u011bhem jedn\u00e9 krize, mohou p\u0159i jin\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b ztr\u00e1cet. V\u00fdsledek z\u00e1vis\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na p\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011b tr\u017en\u00edho ot\u0159esu, o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 reakci centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a na tom, zda se investo\u0159i ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho \u00fatlumu, inflace nebo probl\u00e9m\u016f finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Co znamen\u00e1 risk-off na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Risk-off ozna\u010duje obdob\u00ed, kdy investo\u0159i ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed ochotu podstupovat finan\u010dn\u00ed riziko. Nam\u00edsto maximalizace potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f se v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na ochranu ji\u017e investovan\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f a omezov\u00e1n\u00ed expozice v\u016f\u010di nejistot\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opa\u010dn\u00fdm prost\u0159ed\u00edm je takzvan\u00fd&nbsp;<em>risk-on<\/em>. V t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi investo\u0159i zpravidla projevuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jem o akcie, podnikov\u00e9 dluhopisy s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm ratingem, aktiva rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se trh\u016f a dal\u0161\u00ed investice, jejich\u017e v\u00fdkonnost b\u00fdv\u00e1 spojena s hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm r\u016fstem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tyto pojmy ov\u0161em neozna\u010duj\u00ed dv\u011b pevn\u011b vymezen\u00e9 skupiny investi\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f. Popisuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1ladu na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch a ochotu investor\u016f p\u0159ij\u00edmat riziko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prost\u0159ed\u00ed risk-off m\u016f\u017ee nastat nap\u0159\u00edklad po zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed ne\u010dekan\u011b slab\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f, v d\u016fsledku geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed, p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, probl\u00e9m\u016f finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed nebo rostouc\u00edch obav z recese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Podle&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econres\/notes\/feds-notes\/the-transmission-of-global-risk-20230627.html\">v\u00fdzkumu americk\u00e9ho Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu<\/a>&nbsp;b\u00fdvaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed averze k riziku \u010dasto spojena s roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch rozp\u011bt\u00ed, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilitou akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f a posilov\u00e1n\u00edm n\u011bkter\u00fdch rezervn\u00edch m\u011bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zm\u011bna n\u00e1lady v\u0161ak automaticky neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u0161echna rizikov\u00e1 aktiva za\u010dnou ztr\u00e1cet a v\u0161echny defenzivn\u00ed investice naopak zdra\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Risk-on a risk-off je proto vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ch\u00e1pat jako prom\u011bnliv\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed re\u017eimy, b\u011bhem nich\u017e investo\u0159i p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed rizika, kter\u00e1 jsou ochotni podstupovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/cs\/obchod\/osm-riskantnich-investic-ktere-se-promenily-v-miliardove-jackpoty\/\">Osm riskantn\u00edch investic, kter\u00e9 se prom\u011bnily v miliardov\u00e9 jackpoty<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak se b\u011bhem risk-off chovaj\u00ed akcie?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Akcie obvykle pat\u0159\u00ed mezi prvn\u00ed aktiva, kter\u00e1 poc\u00edt\u00ed zhor\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1lady investor\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jejich ceny odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b budouc\u00edch firemn\u00edch zisk\u016f, \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a v\u00fdnosu, kter\u00fd investo\u0159i po\u017eaduj\u00ed jako kompenzaci za podstupovan\u00e9 riziko. Kdy\u017e nejistota roste, mohou investo\u0159i sni\u017eovat odhady budouc\u00edch zisk\u016f nebo po\u017eadovat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rizikovou pr\u00e9mii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oba faktory vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed tlak na pokles cen akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 citliv\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt r\u016fstov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, pokud je p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou zhor\u0161en\u00ed sentimentu r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Firmy, jejich\u017e ocen\u011bn\u00ed stoj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch zisc\u00edch ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed budoucnosti, mohou b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011b zasa\u017eeny t\u00edm, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed diskontn\u00ed sazby sni\u017euj\u00ed sou\u010dasnou hodnotu jejich budouc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b obav z hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho zpomalen\u00ed mohou ztr\u00e1cet tak\u00e9 cyklick\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad pr\u016fmysl, spole\u010dnosti zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na zbytnou spot\u0159ebu nebo n\u011bkter\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ne v\u0161echny akcie v\u0161ak reaguj\u00ed stejn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spole\u010dnosti poskytuj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby mohou vykazovat relativn\u011b stabiln\u00ed v\u00fdsledky i b\u011bhem hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho poklesu. Akcie podnik\u016f z oblasti zdravotnictv\u00ed, ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb nebo z\u00e1kladn\u00edho spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed proto n\u011bkdy p\u0159ekon\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed trh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed r\u016fst. Defenzivn\u00ed akcie m\u016f\u017ee b\u011bhem v\u00fdprodeje tak\u00e9 ztr\u00e1cet, pouze jej\u00ed pokles m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nap\u0159\u00edklad u hlavn\u00edho akciov\u00e9ho indexu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pro\u010d st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy neposkytuj\u00ed ochranu za v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy jsou tradi\u010dn\u011b spojov\u00e1ny s defenzivn\u00edm investov\u00e1n\u00edm, zejm\u00e9na pokud je vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed zem\u011b s vysokou \u00fav\u011brovou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u011bhem obav z recese investo\u0159i \u010dasto o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, aby podpo\u0159ily hospod\u00e1\u0159skou aktivitu. Takov\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mohou tla\u010dit v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f dol\u016f a jejich ceny naopak vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Proto\u017ee se ceny dluhopis\u016f a jejich v\u00fdnosy pohybuj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem, st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dluhopisy s pevn\u011b stanoven\u00fdm kup\u00f3nem zpravidla z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed na hodnot\u011b, pokud tr\u017en\u00ed v\u00fdnosy klesaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento vztah historicky p\u0159isp\u00edval k tomu, \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy p\u0159edstavovaly d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd n\u00e1stroj diverzifikace investi\u010dn\u00edch portfoli\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Za ur\u010dit\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed se v\u0161ak situace obrac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdzkumy&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/\">Banky pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby (BIS)<\/a>&nbsp;ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky mohou zp\u016fsobit sou\u010dasn\u00fd pokles akci\u00ed i st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. T\u00edm se oslabuje diverzifika\u010dn\u00ed efekt, kter\u00fd investo\u0159i od kombinace t\u011bchto aktiv o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed je povaha ekonomick\u00e9ho \u0161oku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud se investo\u0159i ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vky a recese, dluhopis\u016fm mohou pom\u00e1hat o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. Jestli\u017ee je ale hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed inflace, mohou investo\u0159i naopak po\u010d\u00edtat s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami. Ceny dluhopis\u016f pak mohou klesat spole\u010dn\u011b s akciemi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 je rovn\u011b\u017e durace dluhopis\u016f. Ceny dluhopis\u016f s del\u0161\u00ed durac\u00ed jsou obecn\u011b citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ne\u017e ceny kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Podnikov\u00e9 dluhopisy nav\u00edc p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed riziko. I kdy\u017e v\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f klesaj\u00ed, roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch rozp\u011bt\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit ztr\u00e1ty zejm\u00e9na u podnikov\u00fdch emis\u00ed s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm ratingem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ozna\u010dovat proto v\u0161echny dluhopisy za bezpe\u010dn\u00e1 aktiva v obdob\u00ed risk-off by bylo p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00fdm zjednodu\u0161en\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pro\u010d americk\u00fd dolar b\u011bhem risk-off \u010dasto posiluje?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americk\u00fd dolar b\u011bhem zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty na sv\u011btov\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch \u010dasto p\u0159itahuje dodate\u010dnou popt\u00e1vku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeho postaven\u00ed hlavn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny, rozsah americk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f i mno\u017estv\u00ed z\u00e1vazk\u016f denominovan\u00fdch v dolarech p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k jeho v\u00fdznamu b\u011bhem finan\u010dn\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investo\u0159i a finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce mohou dolary pot\u0159ebovat k pln\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f, spl\u00e1cen\u00ed dluh\u016f, poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nebo navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed likvidn\u00edch rezerv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Takov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka m\u016f\u017ee dolar podporovat dokonce i tehdy, kdy\u017e se zhor\u0161uje ekonomick\u00e1 situace samotn\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ani americk\u00e1 m\u011bna v\u0161ak neposiluje b\u011bhem ka\u017ed\u00e9ho risk-off obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jej\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost z\u00e1vis\u00ed tak\u00e9 na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edch ohledn\u011b \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, p\u016fvodu ekonomick\u00e9ho \u0161oku a d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e v americk\u00e1 aktiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nap\u0159\u00edklad b\u011bhem n\u011bkter\u00fdch obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty v letech 2025 a 2026 dolar oslaboval, p\u0159esto\u017ee na trz\u00edch rostla averze k riziku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Po ozn\u00e1men\u00ed americk\u00fdch cel v dubnu 2025 euro pos\u00edlilo spole\u010dn\u011b s n\u011bkter\u00fdmi tradi\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fdmi m\u011bnami, zat\u00edmco dolar ztr\u00e1cel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tato zku\u0161enost ukazuje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd princip: m\u011bna, kter\u00e1 je za b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed pova\u017eov\u00e1na za bezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav, m\u016f\u017ee oslabovat, pokud zdroj nejistoty p\u0159\u00edmo podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bru v jej\u00ed ekonomiku nebo finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japonsk\u00fd jen a jeho role p\u0159i uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed carry trade obchod\u016f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnou, kter\u00e1 b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dasto spojov\u00e1na s obdob\u00edm risk-off, je japonsk\u00fd jen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japonsko dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eovalo relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, co\u017e z jenu u\u010dinilo v\u00fdznamnou m\u011bnu pou\u017e\u00edvanou k financov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch investic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V r\u00e1mci strategie ozna\u010dovan\u00e9 jako&nbsp;<em>carry trade<\/em>&nbsp;si investo\u0159i p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed v m\u011bn\u011b s n\u00edzk\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami a z\u00edskan\u00e9 prost\u0159edky investuj\u00ed do aktiv nebo m\u011bn, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edzej\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd v\u00fdnos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud jsou trhy stabiln\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt takov\u00fd postup atraktivn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ve chv\u00edli, kdy volatilita roste, v\u0161ak investo\u0159i \u010dasto za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice uzav\u00edrat. Prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investice a nakupuj\u00ed zp\u011bt m\u011bnu, ve kter\u00e9 si p\u016fvodn\u011b p\u016fj\u010dili.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud \u0161lo o japonsk\u00fd jen, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto obchod\u016f dodate\u010dnou popt\u00e1vku po japonsk\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/wp\/issues\/2016\/12\/31\/the-behavior-of-currencies-during-risk-off-episodes-40233\">Studie Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu<\/a>&nbsp;identifikovala opakovan\u00e9 posilov\u00e1n\u00ed japonsk\u00e9ho jenu, americk\u00e9ho dolaru a \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9ho franku b\u011bhem glob\u00e1ln\u00edch obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 averze k riziku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdvoj jenu v\u0161ak neur\u010duje pouze n\u00e1lada na trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 jsou tak\u00e9 rozd\u00edly mezi japonsk\u00fdmi a zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, dom\u00e1c\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e1 politika a povaha konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161oku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je nav\u00edc pot\u0159eba p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee m\u011bny se v\u017edy obchoduj\u00ed v p\u00e1rech. Jen i dolar tak mohou sou\u010dasn\u011b posilovat v\u016f\u010di n\u011bkter\u00fdm m\u011bn\u00e1m, zat\u00edmco jejich vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd kurz se bude vyv\u00edjet odli\u0161n\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investo\u0159i by proto m\u011bli rozli\u0161ovat mezi obecnou pov\u011bst\u00ed m\u011bny jako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu a jej\u00edm skute\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdkonem v\u016f\u010di konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed jin\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Je zlato skute\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem b\u011bhem tr\u017en\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zlato je tradi\u010dn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1no za defenzivn\u00ed aktivum. Na rozd\u00edl od dluhopisu nem\u00e1 emitenta, jeho\u017e schopnost spl\u00e1cet z\u00e1vazky by se mohla zhor\u0161it, a nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledc\u00edch konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investo\u0159i proto mohou zlato vyhled\u00e1vat b\u011bhem geopolitick\u00fdch kriz\u00ed, obav o stabilitu finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu nebo nejistoty kolem m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeho v\u00fdkonnost b\u011bhem obdob\u00ed risk-off v\u0161ak zdaleka nen\u00ed jednotn\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zlato na rozd\u00edl od dluhopis\u016f nenese \u00farok. Jeho atraktivitu proto mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148ovat re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, tedy nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed sazby upraven\u00e9 o o\u010dek\u00e1vanou inflaci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kdy\u017e re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy rostou, mohou se \u00faro\u010den\u00e9 investice st\u00e1vat atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi ne\u017e zlato. Naopak pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f m\u016f\u017ee popt\u00e1vku po drah\u00e9m kovu podporovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdznamnou roli hraje tak\u00e9 s\u00edla americk\u00e9ho dolaru, proto\u017ee zlato se na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch trz\u00edch b\u011b\u017en\u011b oce\u0148uje pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to m\u011bn\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Existuj\u00ed ov\u0161em i situace, kdy zlato b\u011bhem v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho tr\u017en\u00edho stresu oslabuje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159i finan\u010dn\u00edch ot\u0159esech v b\u0159eznu 2020 investo\u0159i prod\u00e1vali \u0161irokou \u0161k\u00e1lu aktiv, aby z\u00edskali hotovost a mohli splnit sv\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/\">Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby<\/a>&nbsp;popsala, jak tento tlak na z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed likvidity vedl k pokles\u016fm cen i u tradi\u010dn\u011b defenzivn\u00edch aktiv, v\u010detn\u011b zlata.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uk\u00e1zalo se tak, \u017ee i investice pova\u017eovan\u00e9 za bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy mohou kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b ztr\u00e1cet, pokud investo\u0159i nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed hotovost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zlato tedy m\u016f\u017ee za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek pom\u00e1hat diverzifikovat portfolio, nelze jej v\u0161ak pova\u017eovat za zaru\u010denou ochranu proti ka\u017ed\u00e9mu tr\u017en\u00edmu \u0161oku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: <a href=\"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/cs\/forex-cs\/jak-funguji-menove-kurzy-a-co-rozhoduje-o-jejich-vyvoji-pet-faktoru-ktere-hybou-cenami-men\/\">Jak funguj\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 kurzy a co rozhoduje o jejich v\u00fdvoji? P\u011bt faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 h\u00fdbou cenami m\u011bn<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Co se b\u011bhem risk-off d\u011bje s volatilitou?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volatilita finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f b\u011bhem obdob\u00ed risk-off \u010dasto prudce roste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Se zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se nejistotou mohou investo\u0159i rychle upravovat sv\u00e1 portfolia, zaji\u0161\u0165ovat existuj\u00edc\u00ed pozice nebo sni\u017eovat vyu\u017eit\u00ed vyp\u016fj\u010den\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Tyto aktivity mohou cenov\u00e9 pohyby na trz\u00edch d\u00e1le zesilovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jedn\u00edm z nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ukazatel\u016f je index volatility Cboe, zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako VIX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Index VIX vyjad\u0159uje o\u010dek\u00e1vanou volatilitu americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho indexu S&amp;P 500 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 30 dn\u00ed. Vych\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159itom z cen indexov\u00fdch opc\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Podle informac\u00ed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/tradable_products\/vix\/\">Cboe<\/a>&nbsp;m\u00e1 VIX tendenci r\u016fst v obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty, kdy investo\u0159i o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed cen akci\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rostouc\u00ed VIX b\u00fdv\u00e1 proto \u010dasto interpretov\u00e1n jako sign\u00e1l zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edho se tr\u017en\u00edho sentimentu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je v\u0161ak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 rozli\u0161ovat mezi volatilitou a sm\u011brem trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VIX m\u011b\u0159\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed cen, nikoliv p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, zda akcie porostou, nebo budou klesat. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 volatilita m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat i b\u011bhem prudk\u00e9ho tr\u017en\u00edho o\u017eiven\u00ed a ka\u017ed\u00fd jej\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst nemus\u00ed znamenat za\u010d\u00e1tek dlouhodob\u00e9ho medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investo\u0159i by si tak\u00e9 m\u011bli uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee samotn\u00fd index VIX nelze p\u0159\u00edmo koupit. Finan\u010dn\u00ed produkty nav\u00e1zan\u00e9 na futures kontrakty na volatilitu se mohou od spotov\u00e9ho indexu v\u00fdrazn\u011b odchylovat kv\u016fli cen\u00e1m term\u00ednov\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f, jejich pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9mu p\u0159erolov\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edm konstruk\u010dn\u00edm vlastnostem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">T\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, pro\u010d se trhy b\u011bhem risk-off chovaj\u00ed odli\u0161n\u011b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nejlep\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak pochopit risk-off, je pod\u00edvat se na r\u016fzn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161oky a jejich mo\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 1: Obavy z hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 recese<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159edstavme si, \u017ee se ne\u010dekan\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 data. Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje za\u010dnou sl\u00e1bnout, nezam\u011bstnanost poroste a investo\u0159i budou st\u00e1le v\u00edce o\u010dek\u00e1vat p\u0159\u00edchod recese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Akcie mohou oslabovat kv\u016fli zhor\u0161en\u00fdm vyhl\u00eddk\u00e1m firemn\u00edch zisk\u016f. Ceny st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f by naopak mohly r\u016fst, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i za\u010dnou p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americk\u00fd dolar a japonsk\u00fd jen mohou posilovat v d\u016fsledku p\u0159esunu kapit\u00e1lu z rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zlatu mohou pom\u00e1hat klesaj\u00edc\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, zat\u00edmco volatilita akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vzroste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jde o pom\u011brn\u011b typick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed risk-off, ve kter\u00e9m se akcie a kvalitn\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy \u010dasto pohybuj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 2: Infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nyn\u00ed si p\u0159edstavme ne\u010dekan\u00fd prudk\u00fd r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed, kter\u00fd ohroz\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Akcie mohou klesat, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i za\u010dnou o\u010dek\u00e1vat ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee firem a slab\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelskou popt\u00e1vku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tentokr\u00e1t ale mohou sou\u010dasn\u011b ztr\u00e1cet i st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. Trh toti\u017e m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky budou muset ponechat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch po del\u0161\u00ed dobu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reakce zlata bude z\u00e1viset na v\u00fdvoji re\u00e1ln\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f, pohybu m\u011bn a popt\u00e1vce po ochran\u011b p\u0159ed inflac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americk\u00fd dolar m\u016f\u017ee posilovat, pokud vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po dolarov\u00e9 likvidit\u011b nebo podpo\u0159\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed relativn\u011b vysok\u00fdch americk\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volatilita m\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst sou\u010dasn\u011b na akciov\u00fdch i dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ukazuje, pro\u010d obdob\u00ed risk-off nemus\u00ed automaticky znamenat r\u016fst cen tradi\u010dn\u011b defenzivn\u00edch aktiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 3: Krize finan\u010dn\u00ed likvidity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u0159et\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je n\u00e1hl\u00fd nedostatek likvidity na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investo\u0159i mohou pot\u0159ebovat rychle z\u00edskat hotovost, aby pokryli ztr\u00e1ty, splnili po\u017eadavky na dopln\u011bn\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nebo sn\u00ed\u017eili zadlu\u017een\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V takov\u00e9 situaci se prodejn\u00ed tlak m\u016f\u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na akcie, podnikov\u00e9 dluhopisy, st\u00e1tn\u00ed cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry i zlato.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prioritou trhu p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 b\u00fdt hled\u00e1n\u00ed nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 investice. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 okam\u017eit\u00e1 dostupnost hotovosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e1 situace nastala b\u011bhem tr\u017en\u00edch ot\u0159es\u016f v b\u0159eznu 2020, kdy se p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00fat\u011bk do bezpe\u010d\u00ed zm\u011bnil v rozs\u00e1hlou snahu investor\u016f z\u00edskat likvidn\u00ed prost\u0159edky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/report\/2021\/assessing-the-resilience-of-market-based-finance\">Anal\u00fdza Bank of England<\/a>&nbsp;vysv\u011btluje, jak b\u011bhem zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed likvidity investo\u0159i prod\u00e1vali dokonce i tradi\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tyto epizody ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee riziko nedostatku likvidity m\u016f\u017ee do\u010dasn\u011b p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eit nad obvykl\u00fdmi vztahy mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi t\u0159\u00eddami aktiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jak poznat, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy p\u0159e\u0161ly do re\u017eimu risk-off?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rozpoznat prost\u0159ed\u00ed risk-off vy\u017eaduje sledovat v\u00edce ukazatel\u016f ne\u017e pouze v\u00fdvoj jednoho aktiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pokles hlavn\u00edch akciov\u00fdch index\u016f m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dovat sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru investor\u016f. Akcie v\u0161ak mohou ztr\u00e1cet tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli probl\u00e9m\u016fm konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed nebo zm\u011bn\u00e1m ocen\u011bn\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem jsou \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1 rozp\u011bt\u00ed. Pokud roste dodate\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdnos po\u017eadovan\u00fd u podnikov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f oproti srovnateln\u00fdm st\u00e1tn\u00edm cenn\u00fdm pap\u00edr\u016fm, m\u016f\u017ee to znamenat, \u017ee investo\u0159i po\u017eaduj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kompenzaci za \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 riziko.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdnosy st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f zase pom\u00e1haj\u00ed rozli\u0161it, zda se trhy ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm slab\u0161\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, nebo p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed inflace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00ed vod\u00edtko p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 kurzy. Rostouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po americk\u00e9m dolaru, japonsk\u00e9m jenu nebo \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9m franku m\u016f\u017ee signalizovat zv\u00fd\u0161enou averzi k riziku. V\u00fdvoj m\u011bn je v\u0161ak v\u017edy pot\u0159eba posuzovat v souvislosti s m\u011bnovou politikou a geografick\u00fdm p\u016fvodem ekonomick\u00e9ho \u0161oku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ukazatele volatility, zejm\u00e9na index VIX, mohou napov\u011bd\u011bt, zda se nejistota na trz\u00edch prohlubuje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nejp\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u016fkazem \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho re\u017eimu risk-off je situace, kdy n\u011bkolik r\u016fzn\u00fdch trh\u016f sou\u010dasn\u011b vykazuje zn\u00e1mky omezov\u00e1n\u00ed rizika.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ani tehdy by v\u0161ak investo\u0159i nem\u011bli tyto ukazatele pova\u017eovat za neomyln\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly. Tr\u017en\u00ed re\u017eimy se mohou rychle m\u011bnit a po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed reakce se mohou obr\u00e1tit, jakmile se objev\u00ed nov\u00e9 informace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pro\u010d je pochopen\u00ed risk-off d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159i spr\u00e1v\u011b investi\u010dn\u00edho portfolia?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Porozum\u011bn\u00ed re\u017eim\u016fm risk-on a risk-off je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proto, \u017ee \u00fa\u010dinnost diverzifikace z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak se jednotliv\u00e9 investice chovaj\u00ed ve vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9m vztahu, zejm\u00e9na b\u011bhem obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Portfolio slo\u017een\u00e9 z akci\u00ed a dluhopis\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u011bhem v\u00fdprodej\u016f vyvolan\u00fdch obavami z recese reagovat zcela jinak ne\u017e p\u0159i poklesu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9m inflac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stejn\u011b tak dr\u017een\u00ed zlata nebo zahrani\u010dn\u00edch m\u011bn automaticky nezaru\u010duje ochranu proti ka\u017ed\u00e9mu tr\u017en\u00edmu \u0161oku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investo\u0159i by proto m\u011bli posuzovat nejen individu\u00e1ln\u00ed rizika jednotliv\u00fdch aktiv, ale tak\u00e9 to, jak se mohou m\u011bnit jejich vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 korelace, kdy\u017e se podm\u00ednky na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch zhor\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdznamnou roli hraj\u00ed likvidita, investi\u010dn\u00ed horizont, m\u011bnov\u00e1 expozice a citlivost portfolia na zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Defenzivn\u00ed strategie navr\u017een\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jako ochrana proti zpomaluj\u00edc\u00edmu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu toti\u017e nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt stejn\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 v situaci, kdy se hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem stane inflace nebo nestabilita finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Podstatou risk-off tedy nen\u00ed hled\u00e1n\u00ed nem\u011bnn\u00e9ho seznamu bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch investic. Jde o pochopen\u00ed zm\u011bny chov\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f a ekonomick\u00fdch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 tuto zm\u011bnu vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/strong>&nbsp;Akcie, dluhopisy, m\u011bny, zlato i volatilita mohou reagovat odli\u0161n\u011b podle toho, zda trhy \u010del\u00ed obav\u00e1m z recese, rostouc\u00ed inflaci, geopolitick\u00e9 nejistot\u011b nebo nedostatku likvidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro investory proto nen\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pouze ot\u00e1zka, zda se trhy nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v re\u017eimu risk-on, nebo risk-off. Mnohem podstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je pochopit, p\u0159ed jak\u00fdm konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm rizikem se v danou chv\u00edli sna\u017e\u00ed chr\u00e1nit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdy\u017e na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch roste nejistota, investo\u0159i \u010dasto p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed usilovat o co nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos a za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed se soust\u0159edit na ochranu sv\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu. Tento posun v n\u00e1lad\u011b se ozna\u010duje jako risk-off. P\u0159esto\u017ee v takov\u00fdch obdob\u00edch akcie zpravidla oslabuj\u00ed a roste z\u00e1jem o tradi\u010dn\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, reakce jednotliv\u00fdch aktiv nejsou v\u017edy p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9. Co rozhoduje o tom, jak [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":91011,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[250],"tags":[5568,4940,6636],"class_list":["post-91027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-akciove-trhy","tag-akciove-trhy","tag-ekonomika","tag-risk-off"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Co znamen\u00e1 risk-off a jak p\u0159i tr\u017en\u00ed nejistot\u011b reaguj\u00ed akcie, dluhopisy, dolar \u010di zlato? 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