{"id":83415,"date":"2026-03-06T11:03:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/?p=83415"},"modified":"2026-03-06T11:03:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:03:02","slug":"trader-ktery-vydelal-na-kolapsu-greg-lippmann-a-sazka-proti-realitni-bubline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trader-magazine.com\/cs\/ekonomika\/trader-ktery-vydelal-na-kolapsu-greg-lippmann-a-sazka-proti-realitni-bubline\/","title":{"rendered":"Trader, kter\u00fd vyd\u011blal na kolapsu: Greg Lippmann a s\u00e1zka proti realitn\u00ed bublin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Finan\u010dn\u00ed krize z roku 2008 se \u010dasto popisuje jako jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch ot\u0159es\u016f modern\u00ed historie. Zat\u00edmco miliony lid\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161ly o pr\u00e1ci, domovy i \u00faspory, na Wall Street existovala i mal\u00e1 skupina investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1zali na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se kolapsu vyd\u011blat. Jedn\u00edm z nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch jmen je trader Greg Lippmann \u2013 mu\u017e, kter\u00fd v\u010das rozpoznal<\/a> slabiny americk\u00e9ho hypote\u010dn\u00edho trhu a vsadil miliardy na jeho p\u00e1d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeho p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh se pozd\u011bji stal sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed knihy The Big Short od Michaela Lewise a inspiroval i postavu Jareda Vennetta ve stejnojmenn\u00e9m filmu<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e si v\u0161ichni mysleli, \u017ee realitn\u00ed trh nem\u016f\u017ee padnout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku tis\u00edcilet\u00ed panovala ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech euforie kolem realitn\u00edho trhu. Banky poskytovaly hypot\u00e9ky st\u00e1le \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmu okruhu klient\u016f \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u011bli velmi n\u00edzkou bonitu. Tyto takzvan\u00e9 subprime hypot\u00e9ky se n\u00e1sledn\u011b balily do slo\u017eit\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch produkt\u016f a prod\u00e1valy investor\u016fm po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro v\u011bt\u0161inu trhu \u0161lo o atraktivn\u00ed investici. Ratingov\u00e9 agentury t\u011bmto cenn\u00fdm pap\u00edr\u016fm \u010dasto ud\u011blovaly vysok\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed a banky je prezentovaly jako relativn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fd zp\u016fsob zhodnocen\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greg Lippmann, tehdy trader v Deutsche Bank, v\u0161ak za\u010dal u\u017e kolem roku 2005 upozor\u0148ovat, \u017ee cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m stoj\u00ed na velmi k\u0159ehk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladech. Podle n\u011bj byly mnoh\u00e9 hypot\u00e9ky poskytov\u00e1ny lidem, kte\u0159\u00ed je ve skute\u010dnosti nemohli spl\u00e1cet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eTyto dluhopisy jsou katastrofa,\u201c m\u011bl podle pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edch report\u00e1\u017e\u00ed opakovan\u011b \u0159\u00edkat investor\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: WalletInvestor: Jak funguj\u00ed jejich predikce a jsou spolehliv\u00e9?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e1zka proti trhu<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lippmann se rozhodl jednat. Za\u010dal vyu\u017e\u00edvat finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako credit default swaps (CDS) \u2013 deriv\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 funguj\u00ed podobn\u011b jako poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed proti bankrotu dluhopis\u016f. Pokud se hodnota hypote\u010dn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f zhrout\u00ed, investor dr\u017e\u00edc\u00ed CDS m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b vyd\u011blat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V praxi to znamenalo jedin\u00e9, Lippmann vsadil na to, \u017ee americk\u00fd hypote\u010dn\u00ed trh zkolabuje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeho strategie byla na Wall Street dlouho pova\u017eov\u00e1na za extr\u00e9mn\u00ed. Realitn\u00ed trh byl toti\u017e v t\u00e9 dob\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1n za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nepr\u016fst\u0159eln\u00fd pil\u00ed\u0159 americk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lippmann v\u0161ak nejen \u017ee otev\u00edral vlastn\u00ed pozice, ale tak\u00e9 pom\u00e1hal hedgeov\u00fdm fond\u016fm a dal\u0161\u00edm investor\u016fm uzav\u00edrat podobn\u00e9 s\u00e1zky proti hypote\u010dn\u00edm dluhopis\u016fm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kolaps, kter\u00fd zm\u011bnil finan\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011bt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V letech 2007 a 2008 za\u010daly prvn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly probl\u00e9m\u016f p\u0159er\u016fstat v otev\u0159enou krizi. Rostouc\u00ed po\u010det americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed p\u0159estalo spl\u00e1cet hypot\u00e9ky a hodnota hypote\u010dn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f se za\u010dala rychle propadat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banky po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b utrp\u011bly obrovsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a n\u011bkter\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad Lehman Brothers \u2013 dokonce zkrachovaly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed vsadili na pokles trhu, v\u0161ak \u0161lo o mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b ziskov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed. Podle dostupn\u00fdch informac\u00ed p\u0159inesla strategie Grega Lippmanna Deutsche Bank zisky p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i dvou miliard dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeho p\u0159\u00edstup se stal symbolem takzvan\u00e9ho \u201eshortov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c finan\u010dn\u00ed bubliny \u2013 tedy investi\u010dn\u00ed strategie, kdy investor vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 na poklesu ceny aktiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010ct\u011bte tak\u00e9: Investov\u00e1n\u00ed do kryptom\u011bn: Nej\u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed chyby za\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edk\u016f<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Inspirace pro The Big Short<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lippmann\u016fv p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh zaujal i novin\u00e1\u0159e Michaela Lewise, kter\u00fd ho popsal ve sv\u00e9 knize The Big Short. Ta mapuje skupinu investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1zali odhalit slabiny finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed vypuknut\u00edm krize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kniha se pozd\u011bji do\u010dkala filmov\u00e9ho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed. Postava obchodn\u00edka Jareda Vennetta, kterou ve filmu ztv\u00e1rnil Ryan Gosling, byla \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b inspirov\u00e1na pr\u00e1v\u011b Lippmannem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Film i kniha z\u00e1rove\u0148 uk\u00e1zaly, jak slo\u017eit\u00fd a nepr\u016fhledn\u00fd byl syst\u00e9m hypote\u010dn\u00edch deriv\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00fd se v p\u0159edkrizov\u00fdch letech vytvo\u0159il.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co d\u011blal po krizi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Po finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi Lippmann z Deutsche Bank ode\u0161el a zalo\u017eil vlastn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed fond LibreMax Capital, kter\u00fd se zam\u011b\u0159uje na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdmi instrumenty a strukturovan\u00fdmi produkty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch si dodnes dr\u017e\u00ed reputaci investora, kter\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee identifikovat syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 rizika v relativn\u011b ran\u00e9 f\u00e1zi. V rozhovorech v posledn\u00edch letech tak\u00e9 upozor\u0148oval, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 bubliny se mohou na trz\u00edch objevovat opakovan\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lekce pro investory<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh Grega Lippmanna ukazuje, jak z\u00e1sadn\u00ed roli m\u016f\u017ee na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch hr\u00e1t schopnost j\u00edt proti davu. V dob\u011b, kdy v\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f v\u011b\u0159ila v nekone\u010dn\u00fd r\u016fst realitn\u00edho trhu, dok\u00e1zal identifikovat struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed slabiny syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak jde o p\u0159ipom\u00ednku toho, jak komplexn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed produkty mohou skr\u00fdvat zna\u010dn\u00e1 rizika, a jak jejich kolaps m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dopad na celou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finan\u010dn\u00ed krize z roku 2008 tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jednou z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch lekc\u00ed modern\u00edho investov\u00e1n\u00ed. A Greg Lippmann jedn\u00edm z investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1zali tuto krizi nejen p\u0159edv\u00eddat, ale tak\u00e9 na n\u00ed vyd\u011blat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finan\u010dn\u00ed krize z roku 2008 se \u010dasto popisuje jako jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch ot\u0159es\u016f modern\u00ed historie. Zat\u00edmco miliony lid\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161ly o pr\u00e1ci, domovy i \u00faspory, na Wall Street existovala i mal\u00e1 skupina investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1zali na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se kolapsu vyd\u011blat. Jedn\u00edm z nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch jmen je trader Greg Lippmann \u2013 mu\u017e, kter\u00fd v\u010das rozpoznal slabiny americk\u00e9ho hypote\u010dn\u00edho trhu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":83416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[244],"tags":[4940,5377,5060,93],"class_list":{"0":"post-83415","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomika","8":"tag-ekonomika","9":"tag-hypotecni-krize","10":"tag-investovani","11":"tag-usa-cs"},"aioseo_notices":[],"yasr_visitor_votes":{"stars_attributes":{"read_only":false,"span_bottom":false},"number_of_votes":0,"sum_votes":0},"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t