The price of carbon on the European market will continue to rise significantly, analysts expect

Emission allowances on the European market have increased in price by a factor of 2.6 over the last 12 months. Their price increases are set to continue this year and next. However, the pace of price increases is set to slow down significantly compared to the past.

The average price of emission allowances on the European market will reach €84.14 per tonne this year and just under €92 in 2023. This is according to a survey of experts conducted by Reuters. In both cases, this is an increase in the estimated price compared to a similar survey carried out last October. Emission allowances are expected to be 27.2 per cent more expensive this year and 38.5 per cent more expensive in 2023 compared to the October estimate.

Analysts have also estimated the development of the market for emission allowances for 2024, when they expect a price slightly above 94 euros per tonne. However, this estimate is subject to extremely high uncertainty.

However, emissions allowance prices are likely to continue to contribute to the price of energy, particularly natural gas and electricity. In the case of gas, however, the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are also seen as a significant factor in the price increase. Last but not least, delays in the launch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will link Russia and Germany across the Baltic Sea.


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